Date: Sunday, 18 January 2026
Kick‑off: ~20:00 Local Time / 19:00 GMT
Venue: Prince Moulay Abdellah Stadium, Rabat (Host City)
This AFCON final marks a historic moment: Senegal and Morocco meet in the final of Africa’s greatest football tournament for the first time despite a long rivalry in African and world football. Both teams have fought tenaciously to reach the final, and Sunday’s clash will decide who lifts the trophy in front of a raucous Moroccan crowd.
Road to the Final
Senegal
Senegal booked their place in the final after beating Egypt 1–0 in the semifinals, with Sadio Mané scoring a superb late goal to send the Teranga Lions through. That win continued a remarkable run — Senegal are unbeaten in their last 17 AFCON matches and have scored in all six games at this edition while conceding just twice. 
Their goalkeeper Édouard Mendy has been exceptional, keeping multiple clean sheets, and Senegal’s tactical balance has allowed them to control games through solid midfield play and incisive counter‑attacks. However, they’ll be without key defender Kalidou Koulibaly and midfielder Habib Diarra due to suspensions for the final.
Morocco
Morocco reached this final the hard way, defeating Nigeria on penalties after a tense 0–0 draw in the semifinals, with goalkeeper Yassine Bounou (Bono) saving crucial spot kicks. It’s Morocco’s first AFCON final since 2004, offering the chance to end a 50‑year wait for a continental crown.
Enroute to the final, Morocco conceded just one goal in six matches and kept multiple clean sheets — a defensive record only matched by the best sides in tournament history. Star attacker Brahim Díaz has been in superb form, scoring consistently earlier in the tournament.
Historical Context & Head‑to‑Head
Despite being frequent rivals with over 30 meetings, Senegal and Morocco have never met in an AFCON final before, making this a unique showdown. Overall head‑to‑head figures favor Morocco — they’ve won roughly twice as many matches as Senegal in their history.
Morocco also enjoys the advantage of playing at home in front of passionate fans, and historically host nations in the AFCON final have a strong record of winning, with successive host victors in recent editions.
Key Tactical Battles
Morocco – Defensive Solidity
Morocco’s strength is its compact defensive structure. They rarely concede and play with patience, seeking to dominate possession and strangle the tempo. Bounou’s presence makes them formidable in goal, and their midfield’s passing accuracy and ability to recycle possession frustrate aggressive pressing teams.
If Morocco can control the middle and force Senegal sideways, they’ll likely dictate large phases of play. Their tactical discipline has been a major factor in neutralizing top attacking threats throughout the tournament.
Senegal – Directness & Firepower
Senegal strike a different balance: they pair disciplined defending with dynamic attacking transitions. Mané’s experience and instinct in big games give Senegal an edge in moments requiring decisive action. Senegal have been effective when they transition quickly from defense to offense, exploiting space behind slower defensive lines.
Their pressing and forward runs from midfielders like Ismaïla Sarr will be key to unsettling Morocco’s build‑up play. However, suspensions mean Senegal may need to rework their defensive shape, potentially inviting more pressure.
Predicted Scoreline & Likely Outcomes
Below are three realistic outcome scenarios, based on current form, defensive records, and tactical profiles:
🔹 1) Morocco Win – 1–0
Morocco’s defensive record and home crowd support could see them edge a tight final without conceding. A single goal from open play or a set piece may decide the match late.
➡️ Most likely under a scenario where Morocco controls possession and frustrates Senegal’s attackers.
🔹 2) Draw After 90 Minutes – 0–0 / 1–1
Given the cautious tactical approaches and strong defenses, it’s possible neither side scores often, particularly in regular time. A low‑scoring draw would set up a tense extra time or even penalties.
➡️ Under 2.5 goals is a strong statistical pick.
🔹 3) Senegal Win – 1–0 or 2–1
Senegal’s direct attacking threat could unsettle Morocco, particularly if early goles force the hosts to open up. A quick counter‑attack or set‑piece goal might flip the momentum.
➡️ Riskier but plausible if Senegal break early and weather a tactical response.
Why the Margin Could Be Narrow
- Defenses Have Dominated: Both teams have conceded very few goals — Morocco conceded just once, and Senegal only twice — showing this final is likely to be cagey.
- Strong Tactical Postures: With so much at stake, neither coach is likely to open the floodgates — expect disciplined defending and cautious build‑up phases.
- Historic Pressure: Morocco’s chance to win at home adds pressure; Senegal’s recent final experience adds resilience.
Fun stats
• Morocco have won four of the last six games between the sides, with Senegal’s only victory in this period coming in the form of a 1-0 win on 25 May 2012 in a friendly match.
• No host nation in AFCON history have ever lost the final in regular time.
• Sadio Mane has highest goal contributions in AFCON since Opta records began in 2010. The Al Nassr forward scoring 11 goals and 9 assists since his debut.
Player Matchups to Watch
Brahim Díaz (Morocco)
A consistent goal threat capable of unlocking tight defenses with a moment of brilliance. 
Yassine Bounou (Morocco)
The goalkeeper’s tournament heroics could again prove decisive, especially if penalties come into play.
Sadio Mané (Senegal)
A talismanic figure whose experience in finals and knack for big goals may turn the tide.
Ismaïla Sarr (Senegal)
His pace and movement can stretch Morocco’s backline and create space for others.
What It Could Mean for African Football
- A Morocco win would crown the hosts and bring AFCON glory back to North Africa after a long wait — a symbolic moment for Moroccan football.
- A Senegal win would underline West Africa’s continued footballing excellence and add a second AFCON title to the Lions’ history.
- A draw and penalties would underline how tightly matched the continent’s best teams are structurally and tactically.
Final Prediction
After weighing form, defense, head‑to‑head history, and home advantage, the most realistic prediction for the AFCON final is:
Morocco 2–1 Senegal
A narrow victory for the hosts in a hard‑fought tactical battle.
Expect a thrilling yet tight encounter that could hinge on one decisive moment — typical of major finals where neither side can afford mistakes. I’m giving it to Morroco but I won’t be surprised if it goes the other way to Senegal. This match could go to extra time as both sides are solid and have the potential to hold each other.
