The 2025 FIFA Club World Cup is well and truly running. Although punctuated by low stadium attendance, there’s been some terrific games in this tournament. We’ve seen a lot of surprises and a noticeable lack of intensity from the European sides. Here’s a recap of the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup so far as we look at Europe’s unexpected struggles, the tournament’s biggest upsets, and what each team needs to do to reach the knockout stage:
Europe’s Stunning Underperformance
Despite entering as favorites, several European heavyweights have underwhelmed:
- PSG lost 1–0 to Botafogo, raising questions about their readiness after a Champions League-winning season.
- Chelsea have floundered in Group D: after a 3–1 loss to Flamengo—triggered by Nicolas Jackson’s red card—they must beat Étoile du Sahel to have a shot.
- Real Madrid drew with Al‑Hilal and saw Mbappé’s illness disrupt their rhythm—major gaps remain in their performances.
Some of the underlying reasons for Europe’s unimpressive performances at the FIFA Club World Cup so far probably include:
- Player fatigue & late-season form – squads barely recovered from a grueling European campaign.
- Summer integration of new signings – Xabi Alonso, Chivu, Tudor and others barely had time to embed ideas.
- Opposition resilience – South American teams have dazzled with passion, fitness, and physicality in U.S. conditions.
Bottom line: Europe is under strain, and the Group Stage has become a real test for their supposed superiority.
Biggest Surprises So Far
- Botafogo’s 1–0 win over PSG — a major upset, underscoring South American strength.
- Flamengo’s comeback 3–1 win over Chelsea — fueled by a late red card for Jackson.
- Bayern Munich’s narrow escape vs Boca Juniors — their dominant early play masked deeper vulnerabilities.
- Inter Miami and Seattle Sounders defying expectations — though yet to advance, both U.S. teams have pulled strong performances.
Knockout Round Paths
Here’s what each team needs to reach the Round of 16:
Group C (Bayern / Benfica / Boca / Auckland)
- Bayern Munich: 6 points – already qualified.
- Boca Juniors: 1 point – require a win over Auckland AND hope Bayern beat Benfica.
- Benfica: 4 points currently – just need at most a draw or better vs. Bayern to secure second.
Group B (PSG / Atlético / Botafogo / Seattle)
- Botafogo: likely top spot with 6 points from two wins → qualified.
- PSG & Atlético Madrid: tied on 3 each; PSG must beat Seattle, and Atlético must beat Botafogo to leapfrog; goal difference could decide.
- Seattle: 0 points—must beat PSG big and rely on other results; extremely unlikely.
Group D (Flamengo / Chelsea / LAFC / Esperance)
- Flamengo: 6 points from wins vs LAFC & Chelsea — through.
- Chelsea: 3 points; must beat Esperance to finish second.
- LAFC & Esperance: both on 0; LAFC can still sneak through if they beat Esperance by big margin AND Chelsea loses heavily.
Other Key Groups:
- Group A (Inter Miami / Palmeiras / Al Ahly / Porto) – Miami need strong result vs Palmeiras; check ESPN permutations.
- Remaining UEFA Groups: Real Madrid and Juventus need favorable results to avoid early linebacker; too early for clear picture.
Who Looks Strongest for Round of 16?
| Group | Strong Contenders | Next Match & Needs |
|---|---|---|
| Group C | Bayern, Benfica | Boca must win big; Benfica only needs draw |
| Group B | Botafogo, PSG/Atlético | PSG must beat Seattle; Atlético must beat Botafogo by 5 goals |
| Group D | Flamengo, Chelsea? | Chelsea must beat Esperance |
| Groups A, E–H | Inter Miami, Real, Juve, Man City … | Varying scenarios by group |
What to Watch Next
- PSG vs Seattle (June 23) and Atlético vs Botafogo — crucial for Group B.
- Chelsea vs Esperance — must‑win for Blues to stay alive.
- Bayern vs Benfica — could shift Group C order.
- Monitor potential fatigue factors: travel, condensed schedule, and South American intensity are all impacting results.
This edition’s expansion and schedule structure mean no walkovers — even Europe’s giants are being forced to work. The next set of midweek matches will reveal which heavyweights can still deliver, and which underdog stories will continue to shine.
